Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
