Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
